NIST Camp Fire Investigation: What Government Scientists Found

On November 8, 2018, the Camp Fire swept through Paradise, California and became the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state's history. It killed 86 people, destroyed more than 19,000 structures, and burned nearly 19,000 acres in a matter of hours. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) deployed a team of scientists to investigate how the fire spread, how it damaged buildings, and what it revealed about wildfire behavior that the insurance industry has been slow to accept.

Their findings, published as NIST Technical Note 2105, are directly relevant to anyone filing a wildfire insurance claim — including claims from the 2025 Palisades Fire and other recent California wildfires. The research proves that wildfire damages structures through mechanisms most insurance adjusters do not account for.

How Wildfire Actually Damages Buildings

Most people — and most insurance adjusters — think of wildfire damage as simple: the fire reaches your house, your house burns. If the fire did not reach your house, your house is fine. The NIST investigation proved this understanding is wrong.

NIST documented three distinct pathways through which wildfire damages structures:

• Direct flame contact— the fire itself reaches the structure. This is the damage pathway everyone recognizes.
• Radiant heat— intense heat radiating from nearby burning vegetation or structures can ignite materials, warp siding, crack windows, and degrade building components without flames ever touching the building.
• Ember transport — burning embers carried by wind can travel over a mile from the fire front, landing on roofs, in gutters, on decks, and near vents. These embers ignite structures far from the visible fire line.

Of these three, ember transport is the most overlooked in insurance claims — and the hardest for adjusters to assess. When a home ignites from embers, there may be no burned vegetation adjacent to the structure. An adjuster who looks for signs of direct flame contact and finds none may wrongly conclude the fire did not affect the property.

The Damage You Cannot See

One of the most important findings from the NIST investigation is that structures that appear visually intact can still be severely damaged by wildfire exposure. Smoke and heat cause degradation that is not visible from the outside:

• Insulation degradation— heat exposure breaks down insulation materials, reducing their effectiveness even when they appear unchanged.
• Electrical wiring damage— heat can damage wire insulation inside walls, creating fire hazards that are invisible without opening the walls.
• HVAC contamination— smoke and particulate matter drawn into heating and cooling systems contaminate ductwork and components throughout the building.
• Structural material weakening— prolonged heat exposure can compromise the strength of metal fasteners, adhesives, and other components without visible signs of damage.

Embers Travel Farther Than Insurers Admit

The NIST team documented ember transport distances that challenge the assumptions insurance companies routinely make about wildfire exposure. Burning embers were carried by wind well over a mile from the fire front, landing on and igniting structures that were far from the advancing flames.

This finding is critical for claims where the insurer argues “the fire didn't reach your property.” The NIST research proves that embers — which are essentially small pieces of burning material lofted by wind — can ignite a home from enormous distances. Your home does not need to be in the fire's direct path to sustain fire damage.

Even if embers did not ignite your home, they may have landed on it. Embers that land on a roof, deck, or near a vent and smolder can cause localized damage — charring, melting, or heat damage — that an adjuster may dismiss as “cosmetic” or unrelated to the fire.

Why This Matters for California Wildfire Claims

The Camp Fire investigation findings apply directly to recent California wildfire claims, including the 2025 Palisades Fire. Here is what homeowners should know:

• “The fire didn't reach your property.” NIST proved that embers and radiant heat cause damage at significant distances from the fire front. The fire does not need to physically reach your home to cause covered damage.
• “Your home looks fine from the outside.” The research documents invisible damage to insulation, wiring, and HVAC systems in structures that appear intact. A visual inspection is not sufficient.
• “We only see cosmetic smoke damage.” Smoke exposure causes material degradation, not just discoloration. HVAC contamination alone can require complete system replacement.
• “There's no evidence of fire damage to your structure.” If the adjuster did not conduct invasive testing — opening walls, testing insulation, inspecting wiring, sampling ductwork — they did not look for the damage NIST documented.

What to Do with This Information

If your wildfire claim has been denied or underpaid, the NIST Camp Fire investigation provides peer-reviewed, government-funded evidence that wildfire damages structures through mechanisms that routine insurance inspections do not assess. You can cite this research in your dispute.

Specifically, ask your insurer these questions:

• Did your adjuster assess ember exposure damage, or only direct flame contact?
• Was invasive inspection conducted to check for insulation degradation and wiring damage?
• Was the HVAC system tested for smoke and particulate contamination?
• What scientific basis did your adjuster use to determine the fire “did not affect” the property?

About This Research

The findings discussed in this article are based on: “Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance” (NIST Technical Note 2105, 2020) by Alexander Maranghides, William Mell, Steven Hawks, Eric D. Link, Christopher U. Brown, William R. Murrill, and Erin Ashley of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

NIST is a non-regulatory federal agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce. Its fire research division has been investigating wildfire behavior and building performance for decades. The Camp Fire investigation was part of a broader NIST program to understand how wildfires affect communities — research that has direct implications for insurance claims handling nationwide.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Insurance policies and applicable law vary by state and by policy form. Consult with a licensed professional regarding your specific situation.